Sunday, July 27, 2008

Week 31: MADNESS!

So my last entry I yammered a bit about how cruel July was to me, and all sorts of completely insignificant nonsense like that, but it seems July is actually coming close to becoming quite as hot as all the strippers that borrow her name.

Sadly, before I spoil the results, this entry to my blog is only about the current week, so I have to stick to the plan and focus on that, instead of strippers.

I made an incredibly smart move this week, which is to purchase Holdem Manager. Now before you go thinking this entry will be just one giant Holdem Manager review, you are dead wrong. Considering the sick amounts of hits this blog gets because of people looking for information about Poker EV (and after today, strippers), I will not be responsible for getting one of the two companies bankrupt yet.

At least not tonight.

The reason for not doing so tonight should be quite cliché. I have better things to do this evening. Like watching Nicholas Cage movies.

Now before an observant reader scrolls down and sees the time of this post and thinks out loud (poker players think out loud, blame Techsmith) 'WTF are you doing blogging on a sunday evening? Don't you have better things to do than post a lousy blog?!?), the answer to that question should be pretty easy to answer: Yep, as answered above which you have not read if you scrolled down to the bottom already, but I'll be glad to clarify: Nicholas Cage movies have the same quality as movies which involve Sean Connery: They are never bad enough to not be worth watching.

The real reason for watching movies and posting on my blog on a sunday is actually quite simple: 1 sixpack. My stop-loss is set at 4 Heineken. So I won't let myself play today anymore...

To get back on track, July is not as bad as I made her sound. She's just been teasing me a bit. So next time I meet a stripper named July, I'll just think about this week's graph:

Or this week's table:

Even while I have not put in that many hours this week, I think the few I put in were those when I felt I was able to play my A game. Which means not being drunk, distracted, horny, tired or hungry.

The most interesting and incredibly well played pots were some of the dozen of situations where I check-folded some bad flop textures, but posting those in this entry would just bore people, so instead, I'll post some random other hands from this week to keep the readers happy:

Hand 1:

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at

UTG ($103.65)
UTG+1 ($145.90)
CO ($261.95)
BTN ($34.55)
Hero ($105.60)
BB ($146.40)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is SB

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $12.50, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $9

Villain in question is a regular at these limits who likes to own the regulars with relentless aggression. I'm a regular too, but dislike to get owned, which changes the metagame between the two of us quite a bit.
His VPIP is 40, PFR 31, attempt to steal 45%. Which are stats that Holdem Manager(TM) shows in the hand replayer without me even asking about them. And when I hold my mouse over his stats in the replayer, it shows that he folds to 3bets 19% of the time, out of 349 hands in july, or rather, out of the 19 times he got 3 bet, which was generally by me.

These are my notes on him:

Does not fold to any of my 3bets, 4bets often
Will check-call flushdraws in 3bet pots
representing hands when IP
OOP will make some large bluffs but won't do anything crazy on rivers without the goods.
leads oesd and continues on turn

So knowing this, I know I will not get him to fold often, but TT is way ahead of his range here, and this screams for a value 3bet.

Even I heard it, so I did.

($26, 2 players)
Hero bets $16, UTG+1 raises to $34, Hero calls $18

Villain raises me slightly over a minraise here, but this board is not that bad for my range vs his range. There's one overcard, and if he hit that overcard, would he really be stupid enough to raise a hand like AJ here vs my range? Definitely not, so the range I put him on is AJ (like never), air (lots), marginal mid-pair (often) and set (sometimes). Which means that vs his range I'm still ahead, but I cannot get value out of any of his range which I beat here by raising.

($94, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

River: ($94, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 goes all-in $99.40, Hero calls $59.10

He checked a blank turn, and bets a second J on the river? I do not think he will be raising a J on the dry flop, not even AJ, which translates into the second J being a blank. Yet what does my hand look like? A marginal pair or perhaps an overpair looking to get to showdown cheap, but definitely not a J. Villain is good enough to realize that, and he'll be 100% correct in this case. So when he shoves this river, he got air or a set. But would he check a set on that turn if he likes money?

Final Pot:
UTG+1 shows:
Hero shows:

UTG+1 wins $40.30 ( lost -$105.60 )
Hero wins $209.20 ( won +$103.60 )

Hand 2: Same Villain:

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at

UTG ($138.90)
UTG+1 ($254.25)
CO ($39.55)
Hero ($104.10)
SB ($142.10)
BB ($100.00)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN

UTG raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50, 2 players)
UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6

I absolutely hate raising with a double-gutshot vs a thinking lag. I think hes capable of 3betting AQ etc on these boards should I raise, and my hand is well disguised.

($20.50, 2 players)
UTG bets $14, Hero raises to $42, UTG folds

Now here I have a mathematical dilemma. My draw is huge, but this player will still be betting unimproved overcards here quite often or marginal pairs, and some draws himself, because he thinks I could be holding a marginal hand/draw myself.

Now vs almost any taggish or standard player I would almost always just call here, because most of the time all my flush and straight outs will be good, and I have a diamond flushdraw on the board I can do something with as well should it hit.

But what vs a player who will not bluff the river should I call here, still does not have a made hand here that often, and will just check-call the river with the best of his range and check-fold all his air on any river unless the board does not change like an extra 3?

Calling here vs a player like that is directly immense EV, but I expect his range to hold so much air still that I actually decided to make a committing raise on this turn thinking it would probably be even more EV because his range would still hold so much air still.

Final Pot:

Hero wins $74.10 ( won +$22.60 )
UTG lost -$23.50

Hand 3: Another TT:

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at

UTG ($82.95)
UTG+1 ($101.00)
CO ($111.20)
BTN ($113.60)
SB ($138.55)
Hero ($100.00)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BB

UTG calls $1, 2 folds, BTN raises to $4.50, SB calls $4, Hero raises to $18, UTG folds, BTN folds, SB calls $13.50

A fish limped, someone with 18/14 yet 40% steal iso raised and a 27/15 coldcalled. The correct decision is about as tough here as choosing between spareribs and tofu.

Rest of the hand does not matter since it was pretty standard for both sides, but I stacked some fish atleast.


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