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Phase 2

I upgraded my PC a few days ago, which actually also was quite funny to do (well, not the assembly, but the buying of the parts I needed). I walked into a computer store, across the place I work at myself, and asked them if they had the Q9300 processor. They answered no, so I thanked them for their time and walked outside. So I went into the next store, where they answered 'yes' to my question, and followed by asking me if that was all I needed. So I answered I also needed an asus mainboard but wanted to see their boxes (and made my pick after seeing them choosing the only one with the P45 chipset), 4GB of ram, an LG or Nec DVD burner, a SATA harddisk of 250gb (have enough external drives lying around) and a 550w power supply from Coolermaster or Antec.

Somewhere along the line they asked me what I was going to use the PC for, I believe it was when I informed them that the memory they were trying to sell me wasn't much better than the memory which was only 1/3rd of it's price (which was the only thing I bought where I even bothered to inform about the price, which also probably surprised them). I still remember the looks on their faces when I answered 'Poker' to their question.

So after finally bothering to put my PC together a few days later and reinstalling everything I decided it would be interesting to start with a complete clean database, and even not import my .dat file from Full Tilt which contains all the notes I have about players.

The reason for doing so was something I realized after my trip to Barcelona. I played a few days online and ran/played pretty bad, losing about 6 buyins or something. Nothing out of the ordinary, but I was getting less and less satisfied with my overall game. Further, my notes on players were cluttered with examples about hands that were way too specific, yet failed to describe the kind of players they were.

My NL2 winnings were something about 3.5ptBB/100 or something longterm, and that is not something to brag at, especially when I consider myself a decent player who invests a lot of time doing his homework, and who does not play too many tables.

I've been doing an extensive review of my old pokertracker database the last few days and came to the conclusion I missed out on quite some important things while playing my normal game, which was something that used to be a large part of my game before: Pure mathematics.

Here are a few examples to describe what I mean:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	billyk38139	($406.00)
UTG+1	YRRLYZL	($237.00)
CO	blinnd	($336.10)
BTN	Hero	($216.85)
SB	ChungBuck87	($311.50)
BB	Klaus47	($54.25)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BTN

2 folds, blinnd raises to $7, Hero raises to $24, 2 folds, blinnd folds

Final Pot: $17

Hero wins $34 ( won +$10 )
blinnd lost -$7.00


Villain in this spot is a solid regular. He plays 23/19 attempt to steal 36% with 28% attempt to steal from cutoff. His fold to 3bet is 61%, but this is obviously weighted based on position, history etc. His continuation bet % is only 61%.

So here, even while it does not look that bad to just call, I do not think I can exploit him that much with his low cbet %, and I may get in a tough spot with an easily dominated hand like KJo.

My old standard was to polarize my range here vs players like these with QQ+, AK and suited one-gappers which exclude a T. That part of my range is still the same vs him, but KJo has some great preflop bonuses in this spot:

If he opens with 28% of his hands, and even with the history between us which makes me believe he will defend somewhat lighter vs my 3bets, I still only expect him to continue with hands like 99-AA, AJ+, KQ and JQs/JTs. That is 8.1% of the total hands which he could be opening with, and it's about 29% of his total CO opening range. Assuming I will get owned badly if called, or won't put a chip in postflop, when seen as a total bluff this needs to succeed 24/34=70,6% of the time while he will generally fold 71% of that range. Even while that seems miniscule +EV, there are still two people sitting behind me who may wake up with aces.

Yet if I add the card removal bonuses for having KJo here, his range shifts. Before he would be continuing with 29% of his total CO range, but if I calculate the odds for him to hold a hand he can continue with when I hold blockers to some of those hands, things shift drastically.

So what seems a likely 28% cutoff opening range? Assume something like this, which is actually 28,5%: 22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+

That leads to 13 pocket pairs (78 combinations), A2s+(48 c.), K8s+(20), Q8s+(16), T8s+(8), 98s(4), A7o+(112), K9o+(64), Q9o+(48), J9o+(32).

This is not 100% correct off course, since I do not know his complete range, but it's a close estimate. Further, it's much more likely that hands like 56s are in his CO opening range than K9o when I am sitting behind him, but I'll leave it at this range for now.

So what this tells us is that he opens 430 different combinations, and he can continue with 29% of that range if I had no blockers, which are about 125 combinations. Me holding KJ gives me some blockers on his hand distribution if I look at what hands he'll continue with, which I described as 99-AA, AJ+, KQ and JQs/JTs. Holding KJ reduces the probability of him holding AJ+ with 8 combinations, KQ with 5, JQs/JTs with 2, 99+ with 6.

This sums up that while normally he could continue with 125 of his possible combinations, he can now only continue with 104. Me holding KJ has a significant impact on the chance I get called here, and while it's incorrect to say he will now only continue with 24% of his hands and will fold 76% of the time (since me having two blockers to hands he will continue with also reduces the chance he opened from that spot in the first place) it does have some noticeable impact.

This is an extremely marginal situation, but in this spot, combined with his low cbet % and some lunatics sitting behind me who could do something stupid like squeeze with A7o even without knowing how to spell that word, I figured 3betting was better in that spot than calling.

Hand 2:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	FIVETHREE53	($82.40)
UTG+1	zer_cool	($227.75)
CO	Hero	($230.70)
BTN	Neffer2	($76.20)
SB	clopper lover	($110.00)
BB	basouli	($438.75)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO

2 folds, Hero raises to $7, Neffer2 calls $7, 1 fold, basouli raises to $29, Hero calls $22, Neffer2 folds



Villain in this hand played quite sporadically. He ran at 40/31 with a 3bet % of 8.8%, and I already made a note about him in earlier observed hands which made me think he was extremely squeezy-happy. So right here, I again have to fix a little mathematical dilemma.

I probably open about 25 or 30% from the CO on this table, and this player is going to 3bet tons and is definitely going to use most squeezy opportunities. If I fold almost any hand vs him except a widened value based range, he is going to exploit me tremendously preflop. This is why I need to continue with about half the hands I open from this spot to not be exploitable preflop, either by calling or 4betting for value/as bluff. 9Ts in position is definitely playable, so I call.


Flop: ($66, 2 players)
basouli bets $45, Hero calls $45



In a normal raised pot I rarely float with just a gutshot and backdoor flushdraw and prefer a bluffraise (though on this board texture, I prefer a float), but in a 3bet pot the stack sizes become a bit too small to raise here. Further, I cannot represent much if I raise since I would not raise a hand like AJ either. His large cbet makes me quite comfortable about my options later on, so I decide to float here.

Turn: ($156, 2 players)
basouli checks, Hero bets $63, basouli folds



Standard after floating flop. vs tighter players I would take the free card, but the chance of him having a made hand is so small that I prefer to take the pot down on the turn, cheaply.

Final Pot: $156

Hero wins $216 ( won +$79 )
Neffer2 lost -$7.00
basouli lost -$74.00


Hand 3:
$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	Big0308	($541.60)
CO	Hero	($401.10)
BTN	blinnd	($197.00)
SB	sorry_its_me	($121.75)
BB	easyway777	($352.45)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is CO

Big0308 raises to $7, Hero calls $7, blinnd raises to $31, 2 folds, Big0308 folds, Hero raises to $66, blinnd calls $35



A 35/17 fish opened UTG, so I just flatted, since I do not really like raising with AQo in this spot much. It becomes more interesting though when someone who plays 23/19 with a 3bet % of 7.5% decides to squeeze. Yet again this person made some plays earlier which made me think that he pounds on preflop weakness a lot, so I assumed he was quite capable of squeezing here. I do not mind a call, but I figured AQ was ahead of his range, and since I will be playing AA/KK/QQ/AK the same in this preflop situation, I put in a tiny 4bet. Villain obliged by calling.

Flop: ($142, 2 players)
Hero checks, blinnd checks



I hated this flop kinda, since even while I rarely ever cbet in a 4bet pot OOP on dry boards, I do not expect to get much action. I took the same line with the rest of the hand as I would with KK in this spot.

Turn: ($142, 2 players)
Hero bets $69, blinnd folds

Final Pot: $142

Hero wins $208 ( won +$73 )
blinnd lost -$66.00
Big0308 lost -$7.00


Hand 4:

This is a hand I misplayed terribly, but I do not mind my play if I had something like KJ or A9o, since then I would at least have some blockers.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	shxlfxm	($281.80)
UTG+1	doktore4	($158.55)
CO	2michael8	($173.60)
BTN	Hero	($207.85)
SB	Bule Gila	($691.40)
BB	Boodabor	($219.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BTN

1 fold, doktore4 calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10, Bule Gila raises to $28, 1 fold, doktore4 folds, Hero raises to $52, Bule Gila goes all-in $691.40, Hero folds



Villain in this hand is quite solid, played 21/16 after 1.2k hands, and had been owning me constantly at this table. Him sitting there would be a reason to actually leave the table, but since I want to get ready for 2/4, I do not mind some tough opposition at times.

What was interesting is that the villain in this spot 3bet me, while he generally used to just call my isolation raises in position when a fish was in the pot, even with hands like QQ+.

Because of that, I had to assume that he was probably more likely to be making a total bluff, compared to having an actual hand, since I did expect him to just call with all his playable and premium hands in this spot to keep the fish in, especially in position.

Sadly, I was wrong, and he told me after the hand that I made a good laydown, claiming he had AA, which translates into him saying he had 99 or something and just leveled me...


Final Pot: $108

Bule Gila wins $747.40 ( won +$56 )
doktore4 lost -$2.00
Hero lost -$52.00


Hand 5:

This has nothing to do with the point I'm trying to get across, but it was an interesting hand vs the same villain as in hand 2, and I am quite happy about the way I played it.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	Neffer2	($233.45)
UTG+1	clopper lover	($171.60)
CO	basouli	($269.40)
BTN	FIVETHREE53	($35.70)
SB	zer_cool	($195.00)
BB	Hero	($388.80)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB

2 folds, basouli raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $5



Again the 40/31 player opens, 52% steal, and I hold crappy-connectors in the big blind. Generally this is a fold, but slightly over 100BB deep vs a bad player who may be tilting a bit after the last hands, I could not find the fold button.

Flop: ($15, 2 players)
Hero checks, basouli bets $12, Hero raises to $32, basouli raises to $102, Hero calls $70



I flop the nuts or cooler, and vs people who don't cbet too bloody often I just lead here. Vs him, a CR is more optimal.

After his 3bet on the flop, I consider my options, and I decide that if I get my money in now I will get it in as a decent favorite, but if I just lead the turn when it's safe, I'll probably have better equity overall. So I stick to that plan.


Turn: ($219, 2 players)
Hero bets $61, basouli goes all-in $160.40, Hero calls $99.40

River: ($539.80, 2 players)



With the history between us, I expect him to shove a turn lead extremely light, and I manage to get the rest of my money in pretty well. Obviously a shove would accomplish the same vs his set, but I do not think he would play a bare Ad or even Kd that different vs me.

Final Pot: $539.80
Hero shows:
basouli shows:

Hero wins $536.80 ( won +$267.40 )
basouli lost -$269.40


Overall, even while it does not show that much from these examples, I am going to to focus a bit more on mathematical edges when I can find them, and will probably tighten up quite a bit in spots which are extremely marginal vs non-regulars. Though vs regulars, I will probably still continue to do a bunch of crazy stuff for 2+ buyins when I think it's breakeven+, but that's good for metagame and image anyways.

EPT Barcelona

Like the standard has been for me lately, it has been a while between updates again.
Only this time I do think I have a somewhat valid excuse, which is having spent 2 weeks in Spain granting myself a well deserved vacation.
Should any observant reader notice that the timespan between this entry and my most recent one is more than 2 weeks, please keep it to yourself since I do not need someone to tell me how lazy I am. Which yet again is proven by how little of the entry about my vacation is somewhat interesting to add to my blog, while the largest part of the vacation was spent at the local swimming pool with a nice cold beer.

Anyways, back on topic, so somewhere during that vacation me and the buddy who went with me decided to go to Barcelona. I lost the count about how often his father must have told him to not go to the casino/be careful at the casino/don't gamble at all as if he somehow thought the two of us were some gambling degenerates who only wanted to go to Barcelona to visit the casino there.

He couldn't be more right, but we did make some pictures with my phone from other random stuff so we could show him we did not spend all of our trip to Barcelona in the casino. One picture even got me in it, and even if it's a silly picture of me sitting in front of a pretty sad looking but tasteful desert, you have to take into account that these are the kind of pictures you want to show to people who think you are a degenerate. It screams "See, I do go outside at times." while it leaves away information like that particular restaurant being only about 500 feet away from the casino.



When we entered the casino, which was very early in the evening, it was already packed. Reason for that being that the European Poker Tour was taking place there, and with the amount of players left in the tournament, the final table would probably be starting that evening. Perfect day to play some cash games vs some EPT busters.



Our plan was somewhat disturbed because one of the differences between online and live poker: waiting lists. Online, you get onto a few lists, get a coffee, and get back in time to click sit down on a few tables. Yet live, during the EPT, you have to wait 4 bloody hours before you can claim your seat.

So after finally getting my seat at an NL1k euro table, it did not take that long to bust. I found myself within the first half hour after sitting down in a situation where I held two overs + nut flush draw in a multiway pot getting about 3 to 1 pot odds, snapcalled failing to hit my outs vs two pair and some random crap hand I do not even remember, instead of dragging in a nice 2600 euro pot. That's poker, but I am quite happy that I snapcalled there instead of bothering to consider the amount of money involved.

After that I decided to watch the 'bubble' before the final table, which is quite an experience to see from the tribune compared to some online broadcast.

After the final table had started I noticed Kara Scott, the EPT hostess, from her accent on the Cardrunner's videos, when she interviewed someone in the tribune. So when I saw her in the press area and she was unoccupied, I decided to chat a bit with her.

It did look quite foolish though when she pointed out to me that as a Cardrunners member I should be recognizing the person who was sitting at the table I was standing at, who was Brian Townsend himself.

It was quite fun to run into Brian. After introducing myself to him and talking to him a bit, he seemed a genuinely spontaneous and nice guy, as you'd expect him to be from his videos/interviews etc. I did not bother him for long though, but since I was a tourist that day, I did ask for a picture for my blog. That was no problem at all, and Kara was kind enough to also join the picture. Sadly it was a bit out of focus though thanks to taking it with a cellphone.

I left the casino somewhere around 2am, even while the action on the final table was getting quite hot and only a few players were left. Me and my buddy, who is just as poker degenerate as yours truly, had the dilemma to either watch an EPT final table from the tribune, or go out to party in Barcelona throughout the rest of the night. And after going out till like 6 or 7am I can definitely vouch that the nightlife of Barcelona is quite a blast.

August Results

Last month I posted my winnings and bragged about it being my first 3k+ month (which actually is incorrect if I include donkaments, but when looking at cash games, it still is. I nearly doubled that this month when I include rakeback. The stats above are from the 30th of July till the 1st of September.

But what was more interesting in this sample is the amount of huge adjustments I made to my game, and how much I have progressed as a player in about a month time because of the play at NL200 vs NL100. The winrate isn't that impressive, but that is mostly my own fault. The hands I misplayed this month taught me quite some things about beating the game as did the hands I won, and those I observed.

What stands out most to me are the discrepancies between the regulars at NL100 and NL200.

At NL100 there are some good/decent/bad regulars who are working hard on increasing their games, generally not playing too many tables.

At NL200 the average regular is much better. Their play is much better on average and they are used to countering other regulars in certain ways.

But what is almost mind-boggling is that almost any regular which I mark as good or very good are just playing way too many tables, which means that even while they may be better than me, they lose their edge because they turn into hud-bots and adjust in a somewhat predictable matter.

One example I could take are solid regulars on the button. They open a wide range, some of them even over 60%, and when they get 3bet by the BB they just look at BB's stats. In my example, it would show something like 22/18 to them with a 7% 3bet. The first conclusion they will make is that I will be 3betting light often enough, and each regular has their own way to adjust.

Some of them will start 4betting light, or 4bet bluffing often. The frequency they 4bet with will give you different options to exploit them. One way is to 3bet with a value-based range which does well vs their range in an all-in situation assuming you get enough folds after 5bet shoving, and expand that range based on how often they fold.

Another way to adjust is by not 3betting light at all. Most of these players will just be looking at your 3bet % stat, and if it's high enough, they make an automated decision.

One key factor from these observations is that this group of regulars will NOT adjust their opening range at all. If they open A3o from the button, and the BB is an aggressive player who defends his blinds quite often vs an aggressive button, they will still not consider folding A3o the next orbit.

Here's one example from today about this type of regular:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($200.00)
CO		($487.40)
BTN		($520.85)
SB		($92.00)
Hero		($200.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BB

2 folds, BTN raises to $6, SB calls $5, Hero raises to $28, BTN raises to $56, SB folds, Hero goes all-in $200, BTN folds

Final Pot: $118

Hero wins $262 ( won +$62 )
BTN lost -$56.00
SB lost -$6.00


Now, while this situation looks bloody standard, and this seems like a squeeze spot, the interesting part is how easy some other hands can be played vs this type of opponent:

With 1.1k hands on him he plays 23/17, attempt to steal 36% with 48% steal from button. So far, he folds to 3bets 56% of the time and 4bets 19% of the time.

If his 4bet % was not so high I would just call here to keep the fish in, and play fit/fold, and I think that would actually be more profitable in this spot. But assume for the moment that the fish in the SB had not called, what hands could I profitably 3bet here?

Definitely not a normal value bet range or a very polarized range. So 3betting KQ or air is suicide, so is 3betting any hand if you intend to fold to a 4bet. A better range in a button vs blind situation vs this player would be hands like ATs, AJs, AQ+ and any pocket pair including deuces with the intention to shove over a 4bet. Villain will be folding enough of his 4betting range there for that range to be very profitable vs him.

Now there are also players with a wide opening range who just fold to 3bets way too often OOP yet do not adjust their opening ranges much. Here are two examples:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($265.60)
UTG+1		($239.80)
CO		($197.00)
Hero		($206.85)
SB		($121.85)
BB		($220.75)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BTN

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $26, 2 folds, UTG+1 folds

Final Pot: $17

Hero wins $36 ( won +$10 )
UTG+1 lost -$7.00


This regular is someone I really respect, and I do not want him sitting to my left at all. His postflop skills are very solid, and he will be getting the best of me quite often. But preflop, in position, I can make a lot from him if I adjust well.

What do we know about villain? He plays 26/23 after 4.6k hands, attempt to steal 41%, and he opens 26% from his hands from MP. His fold to 3bet % is 80%, 4bet% 7%. Further, he cbets 95% of all flop, which is way too high yet he succeeds because people just don't adjust well to him.

So what kind of hands would I 3bet vs him? All kinds of offsuit connectors, small pocket pairs (I cannot setmine profitably vs his range, and floating with unimproved small pairs is something I really hate vs a solid player), suited hands with a few gaps like 58s, the lower suited connectors etc. I still want some postflop possibility because I do expect him to just call a 3bet OOP with hands like AQ and JJ/TT.

But what would I flatcall with? All premium hands and hands which play very well in position, like mid-pairs, medium and high suited connectors, and all premium hands.

This may sound exploitable but it's not. If villain cbets so bloody often and folds to many 3bets, there's little value in 3betting with premium hands. And villain plays way too many tables to notice I won't 3bet premium hands vs him in position. Should he start to notice, and readjust, I will notice it after a while and respond appropriately.



Here's another regular who I play almost the same way against in position:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($234.90)
CO		($206.35)
BTN		($207.00)
SB		($282.25)
Hero		($240.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BB

3 folds, SB raises to $6, Hero raises to $20, SB folds

Final Pot: $12

Hero wins $26 ( won +$6 )
SB lost -$6.00


I have 1.7k hands on villain which show him playing 24/18, with an attempt to steal of 45% from the small blind, 83% cbet and a fold to 3bet % of 90%. This player is very positional aware but just fails at adjusting to who is sitting to his left. Opening too many hands from the SB works well for him on average, which is why he does it, but when he's playing 16 tables he will take an incredibly standard line here when 3bet: which is only continueing with JJ+ and AK.

If you look at a short sample, the optimal 3betting range vs him is all junk, and optimal calling range all premium hands. There is only one problem with raising all junk, which is that he may start to notice it when I 3bet him almost every hand. Though I still 3bet him almost every time, and the reason I do flat him often with hands like T7s etc instead of 3betting is for the same reason: I do not want him to adjust to me, and those hands I do not mind playing in position, even while when looking at it in a vacuum, 3betting T7s has better EV than calling with it.


Another thing I notice is that the regulars adjust well to cbets compared to those at NL100. They have balanced their ranges for floating, bluffraising, semi-bluffing, valueraising etc. What this means if you play a straightforward style vs those regulars when you happen to end up OOP vs them, they got an edge.

What I am trying to do to counter that is to have a much more balanced checking range. What this means is that I cbet much less than at NL100, but checking does not automatically mean that I'll fold. I may CR some boards as bluff/semi-bluff instead of cbetting them, may check-call for value and to induce bluffs, and may CR turns on drawy board because most regulars are just incapable of checking behind a turn when they hold a draw (they hate to put their cards face up).

Here is one example of me balancing my range a bit:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

Hero		($602.40)
UTG+1		($209.80)
CO		($200.00)
BTN		($428.40)
SB		($282.65)
BB		($208.95)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is UTG

Hero raises to $7, UTG+1 calls $7, 4 folds



The button here is a very solid regular if you look at his stats, but not someone I really mind having to my left because he's a bit spewy. So far I got him at 20/16, 8% 3bet, 55% fold to cbet. Playing straightforward vs him is going to absolutely kill my winrate.

Flop: ($17, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $13, Hero calls $13



As I mentioned earlier, I don't cbet that often. And especially vs a player like this, I balance my checking range in a way to let me exploit his tendencies more than he can gain from positional advantage.

Standard play here is off course to make a c-bet. I obviously do not want to give a free card on a board like this, and want to get value from draws.

But how will villain respond to a cbet here?

He will peel at least once with any heart + overcard combo he has and overpairs, will raise nut flush draw, made flushes and sets and will fold all other holdings like bare overcards.

So betting here gets some value out of his range, and getting it allin here on this board will be marginally profitable only.

But how will he respond to checking?

First of all, I expect him to bet his complete range when checked to because it looks like I am check-folding. I do check-fold on this kind of board vs him with hands like bare overcards all the time, but I would rarely if ever cbet here.

So if I bet here he can play his hand correctly vs me, if I check, he won't, because he will never get a free card. If I checkraise, I only get action from hands which will make a relatively small mathematically mistake.


Turn: ($43, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $34, Hero raises to $104, UTG+1 goes all-in $189.80, Hero calls $85.80



Now we get to the point where it becomes interesting. Villain gets the chance to make a small mistake only if I lead here and he calls, and he gets the chance to fold his air.

But how do I expect him to act should I check here again even with a somewhat scary card on the board?

I expect this villain to absolutely never check a flushdraw behind, because he just does not want to put his cards face-up. He wants to abuse folding equity, and likes to balance his ranges, and that is fine. So vs villains like him, when it's very likely he is on a draw, giving a free card is no risk at all, since he will never take it. So my best way to get money in on the turn vs him when he could be drawing is by checkraising.



River: ($422.60, 2 players)

Final Pot: $422.60
Hero shows:
UTG+1 shows:

UTG+1 wins $419.60 ( won +$209.80 )
Hero lost -$209.80


Off course he did suck out, but that's fine. I did manage to put in the bulk of the money with 82% equity, while a more straightforward line would have got me to put my money in with only 58%.

High Variance Session

Yesterday's session was absolutely nuts. There are no other words to describe it, and I definitely did not play optimal. It was a session which gave me a lot of food for thought. So much, I decided not to play today but go through the hands.

So first of all, let's skip towards the end of the session on one of my tables where someone tried to own me by using the BluffCall strategy.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($70.15)
UTG+1		($200.00)
CO		($488.95)
BTN		($135.75)
SB		($424.50)
Hero		($921.80)

[UTG+1 posted $2]
Pre-flop: ($5, 6 players) Hero is BB

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $4, CO calls $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $21, UTG+1 calls $17, CO calls $17



[UTG+1 posts $2]. Let's stop here. What does this mean? Fireworks!

Someone posted his blind out of position after the previous fish busted. This is an incredibly fun situation normally since it will generally lead to the regulars going absolutely insane with isolation raises, resteals, re-resteals and 5bet shoves with 69s. So after seeing I hold the nuts preflop the regulars decide to disappoint me and absolutely fail at creating a large pot before the action gets back to me.

So what is the story here from the fish's perspective? He posted $2 out of position without giving any thought to it, and after posting he realizes he wants to protect his $2 with any two cards. He obviously considers his options, which are minraising, open shoving, and checking (there's no open fold button on FTP) and he chooses the first one.

CO is a decent regular and he chooses to just call. Vs fish's range, any two cards will be playable, but him not isolating instead is a bit suspicious to me. The range I put him on is actually quite strong, so more like a pocket pair, decent strong aces and not much else. Perhaps some random low suited connectors between 56s and 78s. I think if he had a random connected crap he would just iso-raise here preflop.

My raise here is obviously standard, though I do not want to let out what the bottom end of my raising range is here. It's close to any-one-card though.


Flop: ($64, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $64, 1 fold, Hero raises to $256, UTG+1 calls $115



Here I have a dilemma. I flop the nuts vs Fish and I do not care what he has. No matter what he holds here, he posted out of position which is a big mistake, he minraised preflop which is another mistake, and me stacking off with TPTK is not a mistake vs his range. So I am going to own him regardless of the results.

But CO is still in the hand. If I bet here, Fish calls/monkey shoves and CO calls, I am forced to pay his sets of because I have to assume hands like AQ/AJ are actually in his range here. And we're over two buyins deep.

Yet if I check, this hand becomes easier to play. Should I check Fish will see yet another opportunity to protect his $2 which he posted out of position, and will generally lead out with their complete range because my check obviously implies I do not hold an ace. Now if CO raises, I am quite certain he will be doing this with a large part of his range since he should be quite certain Fish is betting out his complete range here, meaning CO's range will be wider than sets and AQ/two pair, so I am more than willing to get it in.

CO folds and I complete the stack-a-donk move here, which Fish tries to counter by making a bluffcall. Its an advanced play from the Fish's arsenal, which is done to show sharks that they cannot be bluffed off no hand to inspire fear into them in future hands.

All in all he put in $198 to protect the $2 he posted out of position...

Turn: ($499, 2 players)

River: ($499, 2 players)

Final Pot: $422
Hero shows:
UTG+1 shows:

Hero wins $496 ( won +$219 )
UTG+1 lost -$200.00
CO lost -$21.00



But before Fish claims the Stupid Play Of The Day Award, I somehow decide to improve my chances on another table:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($118.65)
UTG+1		($244.20)
Hero		($483.95)
BTN		($211.15)
SB		($715.15)
BB		($400.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $7, Hero calls $7, 1 fold, SB raises to $35, 1 fold, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $28



Here I see some normal-stack dude open up UTG, and I got a suited-crap hand which is not +EV to play vs his stack size, especially not while there's a big-stack behind me who just can't resist squeezing every bloody time I decide to cold-call someone.

Somehow I decide to call here, to trap mr. Big Stack into joining the pot. I know he can't resist squeezing, so my trap succeeds here and he squeezes here as planned so I can call him in-position with suited-crap.


Flop: ($79, 2 players)
SB bets $55, Hero calls $55



Hitting a pretty good draw here was not part of my plan. I wanted to flop something like a gutshot at best so I could bluffraise and feel good about myself. Yet here I end up IP with a well disguised draw in position vs mr. Big Stack which is the best I could hope for preflop. I mean, put a 5 and a 7 on the flop when I got a 4 and a 6 means the poker gods must be on my side. I cannot raise here though since I do not want to get raised off my draw in this spot. Which was the ony correct play I made during this hand.

Turn: ($189, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $101, SB calls $101



So after improving to a pair and OESD I hold somewhere about 30% equity vs a real hand villain may have, like an overpair, but my hand also has a decent bit of showdown value. Because we are this deep, I have a few options here. I can bet hoping to fold out worse or hands with 6 outs at best, or I can check behind and hope to hit one of my million outs. I obviously decided to bet here because no other reason besides that I would get a decent price on calling a shove should he do so, and villain's call screams that he holds an overpair.


River: ($391, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero goes all-in $292.95, SB calls $292.95



In this spot I try to think of a single hand in villain's range my 4 can beat, and I can think of none since it's bloody obvious he was pot controlling and inducing with a high pocket pair at this time. Yet I get a somewhat decent price to bluffshove this river, which I decided to do before considering what on earth I could be representing here. I'm representing a set, that's it. Villain should know by now his JJ/AA beats any of the hands I could be betting here other than flopped or turned sets, and I somehow oblige by throwing 1,5 buyins more at him?

Final Pot: $976.90
Hero shows:
SB shows:

SB wins $973.90 ( won +$489.95 )
Hero lost -$483.95
UTG+1 lost -$7.00



On the bright side, it seems my stupidity seems contagious, as this hand happened later on the same table vs another player, after I succeeded building up a stack again:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($164.90)
CO		($556.80)
Hero		($1660.35)
SB		($346.65)
BB		($413.05)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BTN

UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11, SB calls $10, 1 fold, UTG folds

Flop: ($26, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $18, SB raises to $56, Hero calls $38



Villain in question played quite taggy, somewhere around 19/15, but my image was quite loose here. On this flop, there was only 1 hand I was really behind to, which is 66. Other than that, I do not see villain not 3betting TT or QQ vs me, nor calling OOP with QT because he's a nit. So what his flop raise means is that he holds 66, a very strong draw which may be close to a favorite over AA, or hands he turns into a bluff.

Reraising here is absolutely no option because it extracts no value from his worse hands, and getting it in here means I am actually a large underdog to his range, because 66 is a decent part from it and the rest of the hands he willingly puts his stack in will have sick equity vs aces.


Turn: ($138, 2 players)
SB bets $90, Hero calls $90



A very nice blank (J9 is not part of his range), villain leads out again and at this time I am much more comfortable about my hand. I do not like to mix it up between raising and calling here, because I expect villain to actually be checking some scarecards to me should be hit as I've seen him do before. Again I just call, and am perfectly fine with paying off 66 as long as I make money vs the rest of his range.

River: ($318, 2 players)
SB goes all-in $189.65, Hero calls $189.65



With another blank arriving, the call here is standard I think. Villain did not show 66 and called me a fish for making such bad calls...

Final Pot: $697.30
Hero shows:
SB shows:

Hero wins $694.30 ( won +$347.65 )
UTG lost -$2.00
SB lost -$346.65

Why So Serious?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($206.35)
Hero		($200.00)
BTN		($254.00)
SB		($307.55)
BB		($200.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, SB raises to $26, 1 fold, Hero raises to $58, SB goes all-in $307.55, Hero calls $142

Flop: ($509.55, 2 players)

Turn: ($509.55, 2 players)

River: ($509.55, 2 players)

Final Pot: $402
Hero shows:
SB shows:

Hero wins $399 ( won +$199 )
SB wins $107.55 ( lost -$200 )


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($214.75)
UTG+1		($186.80)
CO		($99.95)
BTN		($487.60)
SB		($197.40)
Hero		($246.15)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB

UTG raises to $7, 2 folds, BTN calls $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $28, UTG raises to $90, BTN folds, Hero goes all-in $246.15, UTG calls $124.75

Flop: ($468.90, 2 players)

Turn: ($468.90, 2 players)

River: ($468.90, 2 players)

Final Pot: $437.50
UTG shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $465.90 ( won +$219.75 )
UTG lost -$214.75
BTN lost -$7.00



$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($100.10)
UTG+1		($307.85)
Hero		($327.20)
BTN		($486.60)
SB		($193.60)
BB		($223.50)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $7, Hero calls $7, 3 folds

Flop: ($17, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $11.65, Hero calls $11.65

Turn: ($40.30, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $24, UTG+1 raises to $96, Hero calls $72

River: ($232.30, 2 players)
UTG+1 goes all-in $193.20, Hero calls $193.20

Final Pot: $618.70
UTG+1 shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $615.70 ( won +$307.85 )
UTG+1 lost -$307.85


Why so serious? It's only money.

Either that is the common mindset at NL200, or it's just that absolutely nobody is capable of giving any other player the slightest bit of credit for having a better hand.

One huge difference in NL200 compared to NL100 is how players react to 3betting. There are many winning regulars at this limit who open 50-60% or even more from the button but call close to 50% of all 3bets should someone in the blinds decide to 3bet. Further, they even open around 50% from the small blind into any big blind, even if the player in the big blind is solid.

The scary part is how they crush the players who play back at them, even while most try to do so in a bad way. For instance, if someone likes to call when they get 3bet from the blinds while they hold the button often, why are people still 3betting with a polarized range? Why do the cbet every single flop in 3bet pots?

The common mindset at NL200 seems to be that aggressive regulars already know how to adjust to people who 3bet light out of position, and they are incapable of folding often enough because they think they can outplay them postflop. So if people keep 3betting the wrong hands, and play predictable postflop, they just get crushed in these spots.

A hand like this should be a decent example on one way to adjust to them:


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($433.80)
UTG+1		($243.00)
CO		($254.00)
BTN		($209.00)
Hero		($200.00)
BB		($133.70)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is SB

3 folds, BTN raises to $7, Hero raises to $24, 1 fold, BTN calls $17



So what is the situation so far: I've sat at this table for an orbit or so, but villain is a regular and played often vs me. He knows I am capable of 3betting light from these spots.

What do we know about villain with a decent sample size:
• He plays 29/23, attempt to steal 33%
• He opens 50% from the button first in
• He calls 3bets 50% of the time on average, so even more when in-position.
• He 4bets 13% of the time

How does he play in 3bet pots?

So far he folded to 35% of the cbets in total, in 3bet pots I have not seen him fold to a cbet that often. It's a mix of calling and raising generally.

Now before making a decision here it's time to plan the hand. First of all, is 3betting or calling better preflop? Even while KQs is a great hand to call with in these spots, the situation changes vs a player who will call with worse, raise with better, and fold some total junk or unplayable hands like A6o.

Further, when I 3bet this player from the blinds and we get to see a flop, I will be missing the flop a decent amount of the time. So knowing how he reacts to cbets, I will need to checkfold some flops I miss with my range, cbet/3bet some decent boards, cbet/3bet some semi-bluffs, and check-call some hands. Cbetting every flop is just going to burn money vs him.

Another good way to play in this spot is to not 3bet light vs him at all. But even so, I still think KQs is a mandatory 3bet for value here.



Flop: ($50, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $28, Hero calls $28



Here my standard line is to cbet. The board is quite drawy, and I can earn tons of value from drawing hands and hands he'll float with to bluff the turn when checked to. So should I bet here, my standard play would be to check any blank turn to this player because I really want to earn two streets of value from his complete range.

But like I said earlier, I will be checkfolding a lot of flops vs villain also. If I check here, he'll bet with his complete range, and KQ is just a huge favorite over that range on this board. So I decide to mix it up and started out by checking TP to him on a drawy board, and just calling his bet.

In this spot I cbet most of the time, CR a decent bit, and check-call now and then.



Turn: ($106, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($106, 2 players)
Hero bets $63, BTN calls $63



Here I messed up. Like I said, I wanted to earn two streets of value vs his complete range. The line I took here only gets value out of second or third pair, since my play makes very little sense. I did manage to extract decent value from his holding, but my bet size here is terrible.

A much better betsize would be something that would make him realize 2nd or third pair has little to no showdown value in a spot like this, so villain could consider a bluffshove. Something like 1/3rd pot would make my hand stand out as something like AJ, and a player as aggressive as him and a competent hand reader would not let this spot pass often.


Final Pot: $232
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $229 ( won +$114 )
BTN lost -$115.00


Another example of not cbetting too often in 3bet pots is this one vs a certain red pro from FTP. With about 2k hands on her, she is an example of someone who really tries to abuse position, and makes a decent profit of it. Her attempt to steal from button is about 89%, and she opens around 38% of her small blinds.

How she reacts to 3bets falls under about a different category as the previous villain. She actually folds to 78% of all 3bets, but never 4bets. Meaning that instead of a very polarized range that would be needed should she be folding or 4betting, a wide range is needed to 3bet here: Hands that can be 3bet for value and are not dominated often, and hands that can hit flops decently. In short, hands like 67s are not a fold or call vs her from the blinds, but a good hand to 3bet. AQ is about the cutoff I would be 3betting for value vs her, AJ and KQ would just be a call, since she would not call 3bets with worse hands.

In theory any two cards could be 3bet vs her since she folds too often, but that would just wake her up. I want her to keep playing her own game on the 12-20 whatever amount of tables she was playing, and not draw too much attention to myself. If she's going to focus on me a bit more, she's just going to own my soul, which is something I try to avoid.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($439.75)
UTG+1		($151.90)
CO		($930.50)
BTN		($226.35)
Hero		($409.95)
BB		($201.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is SB

3 folds, BTN raises to $6, Hero raises to $22, 1 fold, BTN calls $16



Her call here makes her range quite strong, and I have to assume hands like AA/KK/QQ/AK are definitely a decent part of her range.

Flop: ($46, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks



I do not like to cbet here since I do not think it can extract much value from her range. Further, should she continue with her hand, I'll be seeing hands that crush AQ here quite often. So I decide to check and reevaluate what's going to happen.

Turn: ($46, 2 players)
Hero bets $32, BTN calls $32

River: ($110, 2 players)
Hero bets $67, BTN calls $67



Because she checked behind on the flop, I do not have to worry that much about being behind now. So the turn and river bets are quite standard here hoping to get called by worse.

Final Pot: $244
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $241 ( won +$120 )
BTN lost -$121.00


Another interesting example of NL200 vs NL100 is this hand:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

Hero		($226.00)
UTG+1		($582.90)
CO		($205.35)
BTN		($202.25)
SB		($306.60)
BB		($105.95)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is UTG

Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, BTN calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17, 2 players)
Hero bets $11, BTN raises to $34, Hero raises to $72, BTN folds



This is an example of how people play at this limit. Villain in question plays 23/19/4, pretty solid player. Since I opened UTG, a raise looks very strong. What this means is that unless I hold AK/KQ/AA or a set, I am forced to fold the rest of my range.

But villain knows this too.

So here we are in a hand vs a villain who is solid, called preflop, and he makes a raise.

Only there are a few things to consider at this spot. Even while my complete range misses this board a decent amount of the time, villains complete range misses this board even more often.

The K is a good card for my UTG opening range, but the only hands villain can legitimately represent here are sets, nut flush draws, and perhaps KQ. He won't be raising a non-nut flushdraw or open ended flush draw vs an UTG opener simply because he does not want to get 3bet of his hand. Because villain is solid and knows how to play his decent yet not too strong hands, I have to assume the range he'll raise with on this board will only include a few real hands, but much more air and hands he turns into a bluff. And hands he'll be turning into a bluff will often be beating my Q high no draw.

That is why I decided to cbet relatively small to give myself a better price on a 3bet bluff. I would take the same line and betsize with AK/sets etc at times.

How is this different from playing vs NL100 regulars? At NL100 most the decent regulars would either call or fold a hand like 99 on this flop, and perhaps bluffraise some total air. At NL200 the regulars are better but play far more tricky, and they know they can fold out better hands with their marginal pairs, but do not want to call me down, so they bluffraise in spots which seem good for it.

I also think this hand is a good example on how to analyze the situations. If I am going to cbet/fold or check/fold in these situations instead of recognizing a good spot to rebluff, why would I be opening hands like QTs UTG again?



Final Pot: $85

Hero wins $120 ( won +$41 )
BTN lost -$41.00


So far I cannot complain about my results at NL200 yet. These are the results so far since the 30th of july:

July Results

Even while July has been quite a bitch to me for a week or so, she made more than up for it in the end resulting in me having my first 3k+ month: $2334 normal winnings, $2995 if I include rakeback and $3420 if I include the ironman bonus.

The most interesting about july has not been the winnings though, but the adjustments I have made to my play. Not all of these will be out in the open on these blog entries, but the hand histories I posted should already point some of those out to observant people.

Other events in july that were quite interesting were the sweat sessions. I've done a few sweat sessions with some Cardrunner's members and realized much better afterwards how many different options there were for certain situations. Differences in how to approach certain spots can be so different for each player, even while one option is not always better than the other, but both are still viable. It's just up to me to consider my options better, and decide which one is best based on opponents tendencies.

Two For The Money

"Still you talk like this. Who the fuck are you, like this is some kind of game. I was betting a few thousand a Sunday when I called you. You pushed me. Every call. All the time with your talk... I lost $380,000 this weekend... I was going to get married... I had a life..."

The above lines come from a movie which is included in the category I described in an earlier blog entry, which are movies from the "never bad enough to not be worth watching" genre.

The movie, "Two for the money", stars Al Pacino as the owner of a Vegas company which resolves around advising sports-betting addicts on what team to pick before a football match takes place. If they are right they get 10% of the addict's winnings. If they are wrong they may lose a customer.

The concept about the company's structure was quite interesting to me. Which is gambling with other's people's money and getting paid if you are right. Which translates into having an infinite bankroll to gamble with as long as the supply of gambling degenerates does not lose the trust in the company and steps over to competitors.

Most of those aspects can actually be applied to poker.

Gambling with other people's money? I probably have to lose over 20k dollars before I have to put in money again which originally did not come from another poker player's paycheck.

Losing customers or having customers move over to the competition? Also quite applicable. I generally get in a lot of situations where some preflop action is directly +EV but not the best one:

Here is one example from those:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($480.20)
UTG+1		($134.85)
CO		($200.00)
BTN		($240.00)
SB		($200.00)
Hero		($230.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB

1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, 1 fold, BTN raises to $9, 1 fold, Hero raises to $30, UTG+1 folds, BTN folds

Final Pot: $21

Hero wins $42 ( won +$12 )
BTN lost -$9.00
UTG+1 lost -$2.00


So what is interesting about this hand? Not the hand itself, but rather my range for deciding on my preflop options here, and my 3bet sizing:

In the above example, there's a 38/10 fish limp-calling, who gets iso-raised by a 23/19 44% attempt to steal regular solid player. In this spot, the regular's range will be huge, and ATs is definitely way ahead of it, but still not that easy to play OOP. The fish's range here is huge here as well.

This is a very +EV spot to make a resteal, and I could show the math behind it if people are interested, but this was the only hand I hated from today's session.

Why is this? Because the times where this fish will limp, and solid player will isolate will be happening tons of times. The direct equity of making this preflop play is a few dollars, but how is it longterm?

The story behind the lines here is that a fish wants to limp into a lot of pots, because he likes to see flops. Curious what K8o can hit? You don't know before the flop! And then there's mr. solid regular who recognizes that, and makes an isolation raise here with tons of trash. He knows he has an edge on the fish and wants to keep other players out.

3betting here takes advantage of that, and is directly +EV. But when I 3bet here it will mean the fish will be slightly more unhappy. He wanted to see a cheap flop by limping in and a lot of people raise and reraise behind him. He has to fold, and does not succeed at what he wants. Yet if I just call here the fish will be happy enough to call and see if he can hit two 8's, I will see the flop 3-ways, even while OOP, there still will be one huge fish in the pot to exploit postflop. And a solid reg with a range I am ahead off.

The positional disadvantage is bad, but keeping the fish in will still make calling here a +EV spot. When I have random trash in these spots, which will happen quite often with this table lineup, I can still exploit the regular a bit by restealing now and then. But just calling here with a decent part of my range will keep the fish in the pot, which is good in itself, and reduces the chance he becomes unhappy by never seeing a flop at all and moving to other tables, or worse, quiting for the day.


The most interesting aspect about the movie was about the person from the quote starting this entry. This world has millions of gambling degenerates who are willing to lose lots of money. Sadly, I am not playing the limits yet where someone ends up crying because he lost 380k dollars to me. I am working on that though.

Almost all the money won by the regulars at FTP at these limits comes from recreational players and small gamblers. Gamblers are people who play expecting to lose, while the regulars are people who profit from their presence.

For instance, my july database which does not include any datamined hands, but only those from tables I were playing at, shows that the total losses made by 4056 different players is $44k. Which equals the total rake paid.
Yet if I change the filter to players who played at least 300 hands at those tables, they did not lose to rake at all. The total profit from those 250 players is about $11k even while over half of them are still fish.

In short, over the last month I've seen recreational players and gamblers donate $55k dollars to the poker community. This means that if that group is so eager to give their money away, I really need to stop making fancy plays vs them and save those for regulars who try to exploit me a bit too often. Why should I not play my hands face-up vs opponents who would not even notice it if I handed them a telescope, and why should I not use exploitable bet sizes vs people who can't spot the difference anyways?