Monday, July 21, 2008

Size Matters

I've been silent since my last update. I vaguely remember me describing in the last entry how good July was for me and how juicy the tables were.

My thoughts about the juiciness of July changed a bit because of a downswing peaking at about 15 buyins. Some of the downswing could be credited because of bad luck. Earlier during the month I checked some PokerEV data and it showed I ran about 10 buyins below equity in allin situations, which had a probability of about 16%. So I did run somewhat bad.

PokerEV calculates Sklansky Bucks, but it does a lousy job at calculating Galfond Bucks. Galfond Bucks, G-bucks for short, are about the expected value based on villain's hand range and tendencies. For instance, on the deepstack tables I managed to get KK in vs AA about 3 times. Getting the money in 3 times with kings vs aces will have an expected value of -$384, I ran at -$600 (slightly more losses even since generally I had a larger than 200BB effective stack), so I lost $216 worth of sklansky bucks on those tables.

G-bucks on the other hand were immensely good in those spots, especially vs people who still jam AK and JJ preflop, so those spots were just coolers.

Other than that, I'm really disappointed about my play this month. It's not that I played bad at all, I think I played pretty decent, but I got one huge leak to work on which is the consistency of my plays. I do try to adjust my ranges based on player tendencies well enough, but my bet sizing is way too consistent.

For instance, when playing vs a calling station and I got a strong hand I may bet slightly more than vs a more solid player. This may be fine on the flop, but on the turn and river I noticed after some session reviews my bet sizes are just too consistent vs most kind of players.

When I am playing vs a solid player who check/calls my cbet on an ace-rag-rag board and I hold AK or a set, it's pretty obvious villain is in a check-call mode vs me. Why not bet pot for all 3 streets in spots where I never will be bluffing anyways? But this counts even more vs fish. When I got a decent idea about their hand range, and want to make a value bet, fish won't be paying attention to my bet sizing. Whether I bet $31 in a $39 pot on the river or bet $39 will have absolutely no difference on whether they call or not with a TP-strength hand. So why do I lose value there?

Filtering july's results shows something interesting. If I filter it on the hands where I went to showdown, bet the river, those winnings total at $1,5k worth of winnings in 108 different situations. In the situations where I reach the showdowns and bet the river, I won 73% of the time. I reviewed each of those 108 hands today and realize I probably missed close to $500 worth of value in those spots. Now THAT is a huge leak in my eyes.

On the bright side, even while July has been pretty bad for me, it's not as bad as it sounds. I won only $215 in normal winnings, but when I include the ironman bonus and rakeback, it has been good for about $1100 so far, which is not totally hopeless.

I just realized this entry was completely without any hand histories, so I will make up for it by posting the most interesting hand of the day. It's not the largest pot I won/lost by far, but I think I could have lost a lot of value here by cbetting (and getting called by the fish and bluffed on river) or doing a delayed cbet which would just lead to a fold:

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at

UTG ($46.30)
CO ($100.00)
BTN ($98.50)
Hero ($237.55)
BB ($88.90)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is SB

3 folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2

Villain will not fold his BB often at all, he's a 43% 0.7% aggression fish, folds 23% of the time to cbets, which explains my smaller open from small blind.

($6, 2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

I do not like to cbet here. Villain will call with as much as 1 overcard probably, but I could be drawing dead at times aswell. Do I want to check-call the river? No. Will villain check the river down without showdown value should I cbet here and check both turn and river? No. Do I want to bet here and check-call any river? No. Will villain bet this flop without anything? This is the good part: No. So no need to bet for value here and get myself in trouble later on in the hand.

($6, 2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

Read flop explanation. A 7 arrived. Will villain bet air/overcards here? Nope. Will he bet a 7? Yep. So this is an easy check again.

($6, 2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $6, Hero calls $6

Did the board change? Nope. Can villain call with worse here? Nope. So no value in betting. Calling stations however do like to try to take pot downs when they suddenly realize their hand is probably no good, but me checking thrice gives them the impression I do not have anything.

Final Pot:
Hero shows:
BB shows:

Hero wins $17.10 ( won +$8.10 )
BB lost -$9.00


Anonymous Pud's Poker said...

I think I must be a G-bucks millionaire by now then! I sometimes us the Poker EV but like you said it is shocking at g-bucks!

4:39 AM  

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