High Variance Session

Yesterday's session was absolutely nuts. There are no other words to describe it, and I definitely did not play optimal. It was a session which gave me a lot of food for thought. So much, I decided not to play today but go through the hands.

So first of all, let's skip towards the end of the session on one of my tables where someone tried to own me by using the BluffCall strategy.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($70.15)
UTG+1		($200.00)
CO		($488.95)
BTN		($135.75)
SB		($424.50)
Hero		($921.80)

[UTG+1 posted $2]
Pre-flop: ($5, 6 players) Hero is BB

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $4, CO calls $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $21, UTG+1 calls $17, CO calls $17



[UTG+1 posts $2]. Let's stop here. What does this mean? Fireworks!

Someone posted his blind out of position after the previous fish busted. This is an incredibly fun situation normally since it will generally lead to the regulars going absolutely insane with isolation raises, resteals, re-resteals and 5bet shoves with 69s. So after seeing I hold the nuts preflop the regulars decide to disappoint me and absolutely fail at creating a large pot before the action gets back to me.

So what is the story here from the fish's perspective? He posted $2 out of position without giving any thought to it, and after posting he realizes he wants to protect his $2 with any two cards. He obviously considers his options, which are minraising, open shoving, and checking (there's no open fold button on FTP) and he chooses the first one.

CO is a decent regular and he chooses to just call. Vs fish's range, any two cards will be playable, but him not isolating instead is a bit suspicious to me. The range I put him on is actually quite strong, so more like a pocket pair, decent strong aces and not much else. Perhaps some random low suited connectors between 56s and 78s. I think if he had a random connected crap he would just iso-raise here preflop.

My raise here is obviously standard, though I do not want to let out what the bottom end of my raising range is here. It's close to any-one-card though.


Flop: ($64, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $64, 1 fold, Hero raises to $256, UTG+1 calls $115



Here I have a dilemma. I flop the nuts vs Fish and I do not care what he has. No matter what he holds here, he posted out of position which is a big mistake, he minraised preflop which is another mistake, and me stacking off with TPTK is not a mistake vs his range. So I am going to own him regardless of the results.

But CO is still in the hand. If I bet here, Fish calls/monkey shoves and CO calls, I am forced to pay his sets of because I have to assume hands like AQ/AJ are actually in his range here. And we're over two buyins deep.

Yet if I check, this hand becomes easier to play. Should I check Fish will see yet another opportunity to protect his $2 which he posted out of position, and will generally lead out with their complete range because my check obviously implies I do not hold an ace. Now if CO raises, I am quite certain he will be doing this with a large part of his range since he should be quite certain Fish is betting out his complete range here, meaning CO's range will be wider than sets and AQ/two pair, so I am more than willing to get it in.

CO folds and I complete the stack-a-donk move here, which Fish tries to counter by making a bluffcall. Its an advanced play from the Fish's arsenal, which is done to show sharks that they cannot be bluffed off no hand to inspire fear into them in future hands.

All in all he put in $198 to protect the $2 he posted out of position...

Turn: ($499, 2 players)

River: ($499, 2 players)

Final Pot: $422
Hero shows:
UTG+1 shows:

Hero wins $496 ( won +$219 )
UTG+1 lost -$200.00
CO lost -$21.00



But before Fish claims the Stupid Play Of The Day Award, I somehow decide to improve my chances on another table:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($118.65)
UTG+1		($244.20)
Hero		($483.95)
BTN		($211.15)
SB		($715.15)
BB		($400.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $7, Hero calls $7, 1 fold, SB raises to $35, 1 fold, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $28



Here I see some normal-stack dude open up UTG, and I got a suited-crap hand which is not +EV to play vs his stack size, especially not while there's a big-stack behind me who just can't resist squeezing every bloody time I decide to cold-call someone.

Somehow I decide to call here, to trap mr. Big Stack into joining the pot. I know he can't resist squeezing, so my trap succeeds here and he squeezes here as planned so I can call him in-position with suited-crap.


Flop: ($79, 2 players)
SB bets $55, Hero calls $55



Hitting a pretty good draw here was not part of my plan. I wanted to flop something like a gutshot at best so I could bluffraise and feel good about myself. Yet here I end up IP with a well disguised draw in position vs mr. Big Stack which is the best I could hope for preflop. I mean, put a 5 and a 7 on the flop when I got a 4 and a 6 means the poker gods must be on my side. I cannot raise here though since I do not want to get raised off my draw in this spot. Which was the ony correct play I made during this hand.

Turn: ($189, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $101, SB calls $101



So after improving to a pair and OESD I hold somewhere about 30% equity vs a real hand villain may have, like an overpair, but my hand also has a decent bit of showdown value. Because we are this deep, I have a few options here. I can bet hoping to fold out worse or hands with 6 outs at best, or I can check behind and hope to hit one of my million outs. I obviously decided to bet here because no other reason besides that I would get a decent price on calling a shove should he do so, and villain's call screams that he holds an overpair.


River: ($391, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero goes all-in $292.95, SB calls $292.95



In this spot I try to think of a single hand in villain's range my 4 can beat, and I can think of none since it's bloody obvious he was pot controlling and inducing with a high pocket pair at this time. Yet I get a somewhat decent price to bluffshove this river, which I decided to do before considering what on earth I could be representing here. I'm representing a set, that's it. Villain should know by now his JJ/AA beats any of the hands I could be betting here other than flopped or turned sets, and I somehow oblige by throwing 1,5 buyins more at him?

Final Pot: $976.90
Hero shows:
SB shows:

SB wins $973.90 ( won +$489.95 )
Hero lost -$483.95
UTG+1 lost -$7.00



On the bright side, it seems my stupidity seems contagious, as this hand happened later on the same table vs another player, after I succeeded building up a stack again:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($164.90)
CO		($556.80)
Hero		($1660.35)
SB		($346.65)
BB		($413.05)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BTN

UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11, SB calls $10, 1 fold, UTG folds

Flop: ($26, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $18, SB raises to $56, Hero calls $38



Villain in question played quite taggy, somewhere around 19/15, but my image was quite loose here. On this flop, there was only 1 hand I was really behind to, which is 66. Other than that, I do not see villain not 3betting TT or QQ vs me, nor calling OOP with QT because he's a nit. So what his flop raise means is that he holds 66, a very strong draw which may be close to a favorite over AA, or hands he turns into a bluff.

Reraising here is absolutely no option because it extracts no value from his worse hands, and getting it in here means I am actually a large underdog to his range, because 66 is a decent part from it and the rest of the hands he willingly puts his stack in will have sick equity vs aces.


Turn: ($138, 2 players)
SB bets $90, Hero calls $90



A very nice blank (J9 is not part of his range), villain leads out again and at this time I am much more comfortable about my hand. I do not like to mix it up between raising and calling here, because I expect villain to actually be checking some scarecards to me should be hit as I've seen him do before. Again I just call, and am perfectly fine with paying off 66 as long as I make money vs the rest of his range.

River: ($318, 2 players)
SB goes all-in $189.65, Hero calls $189.65



With another blank arriving, the call here is standard I think. Villain did not show 66 and called me a fish for making such bad calls...

Final Pot: $697.30
Hero shows:
SB shows:

Hero wins $694.30 ( won +$347.65 )
UTG lost -$2.00
SB lost -$346.65

Why So Serious?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($206.35)
Hero		($200.00)
BTN		($254.00)
SB		($307.55)
BB		($200.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, SB raises to $26, 1 fold, Hero raises to $58, SB goes all-in $307.55, Hero calls $142

Flop: ($509.55, 2 players)

Turn: ($509.55, 2 players)

River: ($509.55, 2 players)

Final Pot: $402
Hero shows:
SB shows:

Hero wins $399 ( won +$199 )
SB wins $107.55 ( lost -$200 )


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($214.75)
UTG+1		($186.80)
CO		($99.95)
BTN		($487.60)
SB		($197.40)
Hero		($246.15)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB

UTG raises to $7, 2 folds, BTN calls $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $28, UTG raises to $90, BTN folds, Hero goes all-in $246.15, UTG calls $124.75

Flop: ($468.90, 2 players)

Turn: ($468.90, 2 players)

River: ($468.90, 2 players)

Final Pot: $437.50
UTG shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $465.90 ( won +$219.75 )
UTG lost -$214.75
BTN lost -$7.00



$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($100.10)
UTG+1		($307.85)
Hero		($327.20)
BTN		($486.60)
SB		($193.60)
BB		($223.50)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $7, Hero calls $7, 3 folds

Flop: ($17, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $11.65, Hero calls $11.65

Turn: ($40.30, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $24, UTG+1 raises to $96, Hero calls $72

River: ($232.30, 2 players)
UTG+1 goes all-in $193.20, Hero calls $193.20

Final Pot: $618.70
UTG+1 shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $615.70 ( won +$307.85 )
UTG+1 lost -$307.85


Why so serious? It's only money.

Either that is the common mindset at NL200, or it's just that absolutely nobody is capable of giving any other player the slightest bit of credit for having a better hand.

One huge difference in NL200 compared to NL100 is how players react to 3betting. There are many winning regulars at this limit who open 50-60% or even more from the button but call close to 50% of all 3bets should someone in the blinds decide to 3bet. Further, they even open around 50% from the small blind into any big blind, even if the player in the big blind is solid.

The scary part is how they crush the players who play back at them, even while most try to do so in a bad way. For instance, if someone likes to call when they get 3bet from the blinds while they hold the button often, why are people still 3betting with a polarized range? Why do the cbet every single flop in 3bet pots?

The common mindset at NL200 seems to be that aggressive regulars already know how to adjust to people who 3bet light out of position, and they are incapable of folding often enough because they think they can outplay them postflop. So if people keep 3betting the wrong hands, and play predictable postflop, they just get crushed in these spots.

A hand like this should be a decent example on one way to adjust to them:


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($433.80)
UTG+1		($243.00)
CO		($254.00)
BTN		($209.00)
Hero		($200.00)
BB		($133.70)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is SB

3 folds, BTN raises to $7, Hero raises to $24, 1 fold, BTN calls $17



So what is the situation so far: I've sat at this table for an orbit or so, but villain is a regular and played often vs me. He knows I am capable of 3betting light from these spots.

What do we know about villain with a decent sample size:
• He plays 29/23, attempt to steal 33%
• He opens 50% from the button first in
• He calls 3bets 50% of the time on average, so even more when in-position.
• He 4bets 13% of the time

How does he play in 3bet pots?

So far he folded to 35% of the cbets in total, in 3bet pots I have not seen him fold to a cbet that often. It's a mix of calling and raising generally.

Now before making a decision here it's time to plan the hand. First of all, is 3betting or calling better preflop? Even while KQs is a great hand to call with in these spots, the situation changes vs a player who will call with worse, raise with better, and fold some total junk or unplayable hands like A6o.

Further, when I 3bet this player from the blinds and we get to see a flop, I will be missing the flop a decent amount of the time. So knowing how he reacts to cbets, I will need to checkfold some flops I miss with my range, cbet/3bet some decent boards, cbet/3bet some semi-bluffs, and check-call some hands. Cbetting every flop is just going to burn money vs him.

Another good way to play in this spot is to not 3bet light vs him at all. But even so, I still think KQs is a mandatory 3bet for value here.



Flop: ($50, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $28, Hero calls $28



Here my standard line is to cbet. The board is quite drawy, and I can earn tons of value from drawing hands and hands he'll float with to bluff the turn when checked to. So should I bet here, my standard play would be to check any blank turn to this player because I really want to earn two streets of value from his complete range.

But like I said earlier, I will be checkfolding a lot of flops vs villain also. If I check here, he'll bet with his complete range, and KQ is just a huge favorite over that range on this board. So I decide to mix it up and started out by checking TP to him on a drawy board, and just calling his bet.

In this spot I cbet most of the time, CR a decent bit, and check-call now and then.



Turn: ($106, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($106, 2 players)
Hero bets $63, BTN calls $63



Here I messed up. Like I said, I wanted to earn two streets of value vs his complete range. The line I took here only gets value out of second or third pair, since my play makes very little sense. I did manage to extract decent value from his holding, but my bet size here is terrible.

A much better betsize would be something that would make him realize 2nd or third pair has little to no showdown value in a spot like this, so villain could consider a bluffshove. Something like 1/3rd pot would make my hand stand out as something like AJ, and a player as aggressive as him and a competent hand reader would not let this spot pass often.


Final Pot: $232
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $229 ( won +$114 )
BTN lost -$115.00


Another example of not cbetting too often in 3bet pots is this one vs a certain red pro from FTP. With about 2k hands on her, she is an example of someone who really tries to abuse position, and makes a decent profit of it. Her attempt to steal from button is about 89%, and she opens around 38% of her small blinds.

How she reacts to 3bets falls under about a different category as the previous villain. She actually folds to 78% of all 3bets, but never 4bets. Meaning that instead of a very polarized range that would be needed should she be folding or 4betting, a wide range is needed to 3bet here: Hands that can be 3bet for value and are not dominated often, and hands that can hit flops decently. In short, hands like 67s are not a fold or call vs her from the blinds, but a good hand to 3bet. AQ is about the cutoff I would be 3betting for value vs her, AJ and KQ would just be a call, since she would not call 3bets with worse hands.

In theory any two cards could be 3bet vs her since she folds too often, but that would just wake her up. I want her to keep playing her own game on the 12-20 whatever amount of tables she was playing, and not draw too much attention to myself. If she's going to focus on me a bit more, she's just going to own my soul, which is something I try to avoid.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($439.75)
UTG+1		($151.90)
CO		($930.50)
BTN		($226.35)
Hero		($409.95)
BB		($201.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is SB

3 folds, BTN raises to $6, Hero raises to $22, 1 fold, BTN calls $16



Her call here makes her range quite strong, and I have to assume hands like AA/KK/QQ/AK are definitely a decent part of her range.

Flop: ($46, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks



I do not like to cbet here since I do not think it can extract much value from her range. Further, should she continue with her hand, I'll be seeing hands that crush AQ here quite often. So I decide to check and reevaluate what's going to happen.

Turn: ($46, 2 players)
Hero bets $32, BTN calls $32

River: ($110, 2 players)
Hero bets $67, BTN calls $67



Because she checked behind on the flop, I do not have to worry that much about being behind now. So the turn and river bets are quite standard here hoping to get called by worse.

Final Pot: $244
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $241 ( won +$120 )
BTN lost -$121.00


Another interesting example of NL200 vs NL100 is this hand:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

Hero		($226.00)
UTG+1		($582.90)
CO		($205.35)
BTN		($202.25)
SB		($306.60)
BB		($105.95)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is UTG

Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, BTN calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17, 2 players)
Hero bets $11, BTN raises to $34, Hero raises to $72, BTN folds



This is an example of how people play at this limit. Villain in question plays 23/19/4, pretty solid player. Since I opened UTG, a raise looks very strong. What this means is that unless I hold AK/KQ/AA or a set, I am forced to fold the rest of my range.

But villain knows this too.

So here we are in a hand vs a villain who is solid, called preflop, and he makes a raise.

Only there are a few things to consider at this spot. Even while my complete range misses this board a decent amount of the time, villains complete range misses this board even more often.

The K is a good card for my UTG opening range, but the only hands villain can legitimately represent here are sets, nut flush draws, and perhaps KQ. He won't be raising a non-nut flushdraw or open ended flush draw vs an UTG opener simply because he does not want to get 3bet of his hand. Because villain is solid and knows how to play his decent yet not too strong hands, I have to assume the range he'll raise with on this board will only include a few real hands, but much more air and hands he turns into a bluff. And hands he'll be turning into a bluff will often be beating my Q high no draw.

That is why I decided to cbet relatively small to give myself a better price on a 3bet bluff. I would take the same line and betsize with AK/sets etc at times.

How is this different from playing vs NL100 regulars? At NL100 most the decent regulars would either call or fold a hand like 99 on this flop, and perhaps bluffraise some total air. At NL200 the regulars are better but play far more tricky, and they know they can fold out better hands with their marginal pairs, but do not want to call me down, so they bluffraise in spots which seem good for it.

I also think this hand is a good example on how to analyze the situations. If I am going to cbet/fold or check/fold in these situations instead of recognizing a good spot to rebluff, why would I be opening hands like QTs UTG again?



Final Pot: $85

Hero wins $120 ( won +$41 )
BTN lost -$41.00


So far I cannot complain about my results at NL200 yet. These are the results so far since the 30th of july: